Bellingcat has identified at least 80 police stations or infrastructure related to law enforcement agencies and the Basij paramilitary group that has been damaged or destroyed in the first three weeks of the United States and Israel’s war against Iran. Experts told Bellingcat that both countries aim to degrade the Iranian regime’s “repressive capacity”.

Combined, the US and Israel have conducted thousands of strikes during the course of the 2026 war in Iran. Targets range from Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) sites, Navy vessels to Iranian weapons manufacturers.

In early March, a Bellingcat analysis using satellite imagery and available photos and videos identified police stations as another apparent target, with at least 15 damaged or destroyed in the capital, Tehran.

We also identified multiple strikes against police infrastructure in the country’s north and west; these areas were targeted by the Israel Defence Forces according to a map released by the IDF on March 31.

“We are providing the brave people of Iran with the conditions to take their destiny into their own hands,” declared the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs official X account, along with a photo of a destroyed police station.

اینجا کلانتری ۱۲۱ سلیمانیه در خیابان نبرد تهران بود.

ما شرایطی را برای مردم شجاع ایران فراهم می‌کنیم تا سرنوشت خود را در دست بگیرند. pic.twitter.com/VSm6YVvIwZ

— اسرائیل به فارسی (@IsraelPersian) March 5, 2026

In all, the majority of strikes Bellingcat analysed focused on police stations (30 incidents) and command centers or headquarters (29 incidents). Locations also include sites related to Basij, a plainclothes paramilitary organisation (9) affiliated with the IRGC that were “involved in the deadly crackdown” of protests in January 2026, others are associated with special forces (3) and traffic (2) or diplomatic (2) police compounds.

Due to commercial satellite companies limiting access to imagery over Iran and neighbouring countries we relied on Sentinel-2 imagery data to help verify the incidents, as well as videos and photos, some of which were also verified by independent geolocators and contributors to the Geoconfirmed volunteer community and confirmed by Bellingcat researchers. 

Location data was partly determined using open source mapping data either from Wikimapia, OpenStreetMap or Google Maps. When video footage or photos were available for incidents reportedly targeting police stations, the location was verified with geolocation and satellite imagery analysis using either Planet Labs medium resolution PlanetScope data (restricted to imagery collected by March 9) or low resolution Sentinel-2 data.

Some locations were discovered utilising location data taken from OpenStreetMap using Overpass Turbo and comparing that with available Sentinel-2 data throughout Iran.

Map showing geolocated incidents in Iran. Click the markers to view the coordinates, sources, and verification notes. Map: Bellingcat/Miguel Ramalho

A Problem of Scale

Israel has released multiple videos showing the targeting of bases and checkpoints belonging to the Basij. In mid-March, the IDF announced the killing of the paramilitary group’s commander, Gholamreza Soleimani. 

Targeting the Basij is part of Israel’s and the US’ agenda “to degrade the regime’s repressive capacity,” Ali Vaez, the director of International Crisis Group Iran Project, told Bellingcat. Police stations are “not involved in repression in the way that crowd control police or Basij centers are”, so targeting them “appears more aimed at preventing the Islamic Republic from being able to maintain control internally,” he said.

Vaez told Bellingcat that, when considered alongside the broader range of targets, including industrial factories, the widespread targeting of police stations is part of a strategy “to make Iran ungovernable for the existing regime or whatever comes after”. 

Vaez was skeptical about the short term effects: “It’s a problem of scale. Iran is such a large country, even if you are able to completely destroy, not just degrade, the capacity of the regime in policing, oppressing, etc – it really requires not just maybe weeks but maybe months if not years.”

The Risk of Civilian Casualties

As of April 7, the Iranian Human Rights Activists News Agency estimates there’ve been more than 1,700 civilian fatalities during the war. 

Several police stations are situated in densely populated urban areas such as Tehran. Stations are used by civilians for various reasons including renewing driving licences, so if these buildings are targeted “during working hours and not in the middle of the night then risk is higher for these people,” Vaez said.

Map showing geolocated incidents in Tehran. Click the markers to view the coordinates, sources, and verification notes. Map: Bellingcat/Miguel Ramalho

A recent joint Airwars, Center for Civilians in Conflict and Human Rights Activists in Iran report detailing the first month of civilian casualties included a section on the worsening situation for detainees in Iranian prisons — including police stations that have been targeted. 

“I was detained in the holding cell of [Police Station 148] for ten days, along with four other activists. Now it looks like nothing is left of that station but ruins. I can’t even recognize where the detention area was. I keep wondering what happened to the people who were being held there during the attack. – Activist, told HRA upon seeing photos of the police station after recent US/Israeli airstrikes.”

Footage shared and geolocated by the BBC’s Shayan Sardarizadeh showed Police Station 148 damaged after an apparent strike in mid-March.

The main building of Tehran’s 148 police station and its courtyard, located on Enghelab Street, has been severely damaged in air strikes conducted on Friday.

The adjacent Hamoon Theatre also sustained some damage.

Video: @Vahid

Location: 35.700812, 51.402163@GeoConfirmed pic.twitter.com/9sdOtHd2XN

— Shayan Sardarizadeh (@Shayan86) March 14, 2026

One destroyed police station identified by Bellingcat in the city of Mahabad in northwestern Iran led to apparent damage to an Iranian Red Crescent Society building located next door. According to Iran’s Tasnim News agency (an IRGC-affiliated media outlet sanctioned by the EU, the US and Canada), one Red Crescent employee was injured in the attack.

The police station adjacent to the Red Crescent building isn’t identified on any mapping services, though there are reports “Police Station 11” was targeted the same day.

Israel has also targeted checkpoints operated by Basij members.

Bellingcat examined two cases showing Israeli strikes on checkpoints while civilians were passing. In one video, a strike hits a checkpoint as five motorbikes and a vehicle go by.

In another IDF video, a yellow bus is immediately adjacent to the checkpoint when it is hit. It is unclear how many people were on the bus at the time of the strike or if anyone was injured.

According to the Open Source Munitions Portal (OSMP), Israeli drones commonly employ the Mikholit bomb. A variant of this bomb has 890 grams of explosives, an amount that creates hazardous fragmentation up to 104 meters away. 

“I have been watching the reporting on these Basij strikes and the use of the Mikholit in particular in open urban areas. It is IDF standard—using precision munitions and even sometimes “low collateral” munitions but in a reckless manner that still puts the civilian population at risk,” Wes J. Bryant, a defence and national security analyst formerly with the Pentagon’s Civilian Protection Center of Excellence told Bellingcat.

Questions Over Legality

International Humanitarian Law defines civilians as “persons who are not members of the armed forces”. Police officers fall under that definition, according to Adil Haque, Professor of Law at Rutgers University and Executive Editor at Just Security.  “As a rule, police are civilians and may not be attacked unless they take a direct part in hostilities,” Haque told Bellingcat. National security analyst Bryant agreed, adding that targeting police “does not stand up to legal scrutiny”.

In an email to Bellingcat, the IDF noted “that the police form part of Iran’s internal security apparatus, which also forms part of Iran’s armed forces, under Iran’s own domestic legislation. In every strike, the IDF takes feasible precautions in order to mitigate incidental harm to civilians and civilian objects to the extent possible under the circumstances.”

Police are indeed “part of the country’s armed forces. By that logic, anything with a flag on it is a legitimate target,” Ali Vaez, the director of International Crisis Group Iran Project, said.

Although Basij is a paramilitary group, any strikes against it would require precautions to minimise harm to civilians, Haque told Bellingcat. “Since the hostilities almost entirely involve aerial bombardment, the concrete and direct military advantage anticipated from strikes on Basij members who qualify as combatants is extremely low, so significant harm to nearby civilians would be disproportionate and illegal,” he said.

When asked about potential civilian casualties in the checkpoint strikes, the IDF told Bellingcat that since the Basij are subordinate to the IRGC and are therefore part of the armed forces, they are regarded as lawful military targets. Regarding the checkpoint strikes specifically, they stated “precision munitions and surveillance means were used in the strikes, as part of the precautions taken under the circumstances to mitigate expected incidental harm”.

Bellingcat reached out to US Central Command (CENTCOM) to ask if the US had any role in the police station strikes identified but received no official comment at the time of publication. 

The data collected so far for these sites can be found here.

---

Miguel Ramalho and Felix Matteo Lommerse contributed to this report.

Bellingcat is a non-profit and the ability to carry out our work is dependent on the kind support of individual donors. If you would like to support our work, you can do so here. You can also subscribe to our Patreon channel here. Subscribe to our Newsletter and follow us on Bluesky here, Instagram here, Reddit here and YouTube here.

The post “Make Iran Ungovernable” – Tracking Efforts To Destroy Iran’s Police Infrastructure appeared first on bellingcat.

Today's links

• The enshittification multiverse: It's a useful analogy.
• Hey look at this: Delights to delectate.
• Object permanence: Every complex ecosystem has parasites; Prison for "attempted infringement"; When We Were Robots in Egypt; Golfing in The Blitz; Copyright vs privacy (NZ edn); GOP support for pedophile Hastert; EFF's music license; RIP Jane Jacobs; California is fanfic; DMCA v medical implants; "Burglar's Guide to the City"; Flaming river; Fantasy accounting.
• Upcoming appearances: Berlin, NYC, Barcelona, Hay-on-Wye, London, NYC.
• Recent appearances: Where I've been.
• Latest books: You keep readin' em, I'll keep writin' 'em.
• Upcoming books: Like I said, I'll keep writin' 'em.
• Colophon: All the rest.

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The enshittification multiverse (permalink)

It's official: you have my consent and enthusiastic blessing to apply "enshittification" to things that aren't digital platforms! Semantic drift is good, actually:

https://pluralistic.net/2024/10/14/pearl-clutching/#this-toilet-has-no-central-nervous-system

With that out of the way, let's talk about how enshittification can be usefully applied to gambits that worsen something in order to shift value from the users of that thing to the person doing the worsening.

Here's the crux: in life, there are many zero-sum situations in which others' pain is your profit. The most basic example of this is profit margins: as your profit margin climbs, so do the prices paid by others. The more money a customer gives you for whatever you're selling, the less money that customer has to spend on other things they want.

This is the fatal flaw in the economist's justification for surveillance pricing (when the price you're quoted is based on surveillance data about the urgency of your needs and your ability to pay): a seller who commands higher prices from a buyer deprives other sellers of that buyer's money.

The airline that knows you can't miss a funeral and also knows how much purchasing power is available on your credit card can charge you every cent you can afford – but that means that the coffee shop owner who normally sells you a latte in the morning will lose out on your business for months while you dig yourself out of that hole.

Tim Wu has a good example of this: imagine a world in which electricity utilities were unregulated and got to charge "market rates" for their products. Prior to the current wave of cheap, efficient solar, electrical power was a "natural monopoly." In nearly every circumstance, a given person would end up with just one source of power, and life without power was nearly unimaginable. In that situation, the power company's "rational" decision would be to charge you everything you could afford for the least electricity you could survive on: enough to keep your fridge and a few lights on. That means that you would be deprived of the value of, say, a clock radio and a coffee-maker, and the manufacturers of the clock radio and the coffee-maker would likewise suffer the loss of your business.

So the "monopoly" part is key to this story. The more alternatives you have, the harder it is to squeeze you on prices. Airport concessionaires can charge $12 for a Coke on the "clean" side of a TSA checkpoint because realistically you can't leave the airport and get a Coke elsewhere – and if you do, you can't bring it through the checkpoint.

Any source of lock-in becomes an invitation to shift value away from your customers and suppliers to yourself. High "switching costs" are always a precondition for enshittification – otherwise the people you're trying to enshittify will simply take their business elsewhere:

https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2021/08/facebooks-secret-war-switching-costs

That's why market concentration is so central to the enshittification story: when the number of competitors in a sector dwindles to a cartel (or a duopoly or a monopoly) companies find it easy to fix prices so there's no point in shopping around, and they can capture their regulators and harness the power of the state to block other companies from entering the market with a better deal:

https://pluralistic.net/2023/02/05/small-government/

Now that we understand the role that switching costs, regulatory capture, and market concentration play in enshittification, let's put them together to propose a framework for applying enshittification to things other than digital platforms:

Enshittification happens when someone sets out to reduce your choices, and then uses that lock-in to make things worse for you in order to make things better for themself.

Note that this definition requires a degree of intent. Enshittification isn't just bargaining hard when you find yourself in a position of strength. It's what happens when you set out to systematically weaken other people's bargaining position in anticipation of a future opportunity to fuck them over in order to improve your own situation.

So if the business lobby bribes Republican state legislators to pass "right to work" laws that make it nearly impossible for workers to unionize, and then the businesses involved worsen their workers' pay and conditions, we can call that enshittification. If they can bind workers to noncompete "agreements" that make it illegal for the cashier at Wendy's to get $0.25/h more at the McDonald's, that's even more enshittifying:

https://pluralistic.net/2025/11/10/zero-sum-zero-hours/#that-sounds-like-a-you-problem

Or if shitty men lobby to end anti-discrimination laws (making it much harder for a single woman to survive on her paycheck) and to end no-fault divorce (to make it much harder for a woman to leave the husband she marries to survive in a world where it's legal to discriminate against her in the workplace), in anticipation of being able to be a shitty husband without losing their wives, they are enshittifying marriage (applying this to the effort to kill the concept of "marital rape" is left as an exercise for the reader).

This can also be applied to politics. Restrictions on immigration and out-migration are both preludes to state enshittification, since a population that can't leave for another state will, on average, put up with more abuse from their political classes without leaving. Tying your work visa to your employer is very enshittification-friendly:

https://prospect.org/2026/04/22/north-carolina-farm-stole-h-2a-visa-workers-passports-lawsuit-trump-immigration/

One of the questions I get most frequently is "what about AI and enshittification?" This is a complicated question! Obviously, AI is very enshittification-prone: as "black boxes" that do not produce reliable, deterministic outputs, AI products have a lot of intrinsic cover for their enshittifying behavior.

If you ask a chatbot to recommend a product and it steers you toward an inferior option that generates a higher commission for the company, who can say whether that was the chatbot cheating, or if it was it a "hallucination?" Likewise, if you ask a chatbot to solve your problem and it does so in an inefficient way that burns a zillion tokens (which you have to pay for), is that the chatbot malfunctioning, or is that price-gouging?

https://pluralistic.net/2025/08/16/jackpot/#salience-bias

Beyond this, AI is very useful for plain old enshittification. Surveillance pricing – changing prices or wages based on the other person's desperation and ability to pay – is something AI is very good at:

https://pluralistic.net/2026/01/21/cod-marxism/#wannamaker-slain

And AI companies can enshittify their products in all the traditional ways: after a customer integrates AI in their lives and businesses in ways that are hard to escape, the AI company can raise prices, insert ads, and route queries to cheaper models that cost less to run and produce worse outputs.

But here's where there's a critical difference between enshittifying AI and enshittifying a profitable tech business like app stores or search engines. AI is the money-losingest project the human race has ever attempted. At $1.4 trillion and counting, the AI companies and their "frontier models" are so deep in the red that I can't see any way that any of these firms will survive:

https://pluralistic.net/2026/04/16/pascals-wager/#doomer-challenge

So, on the one hand, as these companies find themselves ever-more cash-strapped, they will be severely tempted to enshittify their products. But on the other hand, if these companies are doomed no matter what they do, then the enshittification will take care of itself when they go bankrupt.

---

Hey look at this (permalink)

• Win a copy of Enshittification signed by Cory Doctorow https://action.openrightsgroup.org/win-copy-enshittification-signed-cory-doctorow-0

• The New Credit Union Model: First Expand Members’ Economic Freedom– Then Become their Oppressor https://chipfilson.com/2026/04/the-new-credit-union-model-first-expand-members-economic-freedom-then-become-their-oppressor/

• The case for lunar socialism https://www.lukewsavage.com/p/the-case-for-lunar-socialism

• The Reverse Centaur's Guide to Life After AI (Signed Edition) https://uk.bookshop.org/p/books/the-reverse-centaur-s-guide-to-life-after-ai-signed-edition-how-to-think-about-artificial-intelligence-before-it-s-too-late-cory-doctorow/bb87965fc9cc08b9?ean=9781472641991&next=t

• Slightly Drunk on Wonder https://patrickcostello.substack.com/p/new-book-in-the-works

---

Object permanence (permalink)

#25yrsago Jakob Nielsen on reputation managers https://www.nngroup.com/articles/reputation-managers-are-happening/

#25yrsago EFF's sharing friendly music license https://web.archive.org/web/20010429045301/https://www.eff.org/IP/Open_licenses/20010421_eff_oal_pr.html

#25yrsago Speedle: what links are forwarded most online? https://web.archive.org/web/20010401084047/http://www.speedle.com/

#20yrsago RIP Jane Jacobs, urban activist https://web.archive.org/web/20061009063708/http://www.canada.com/topics/news/story.html?id=fe1de18f-6b6e-473d-b0cb-0cc422dcf661&k=25935

#20yrsago Why fan fiction is so important https://nielsenhayden.com/makinglight/archives/007464.html#007464

#20yrsago California got its name from fanfic https://nielsenhayden.com/makinglight/archives/007464.html#122035

#20yrsago DMCA revision proposal will jail Americans for “attempting” infringment https://web.archive.org/web/20060502093524/https://ipaction.org/blog/2006/04/bill-hollywood-cartels-dont-want-you_24.html

#20yrsago Vista’s endless parade of warnings won’t create security https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2006/04/microsoft_vista.html

#15yrsago Passover poem about robots: “When We Were Robots in Egypt” https://reactormag.com/when-we-were-robots-in-egypt/

#15yrsago Naipaul’s rules for beginning writers https://web.archive.org/web/20110508152004/http://www.indiauncut.com/iublog/article/vs-naipauls-advice-to-writers-rules-for-beginners/

#15yrsago Rules for golfing during the blitz https://directorblue.blogspot.com/2011/04/stiff-upper-lip.html

#15yrsago New Zealand’s rammed-through copyright law includes mass warrantless surveillance and publication of accused’s browsing habits https://www.stuff.co.nz/technology/digital-living/4922854/Copyright-change-about-more-than-idle-threats

#15yrsago State Dept adding intrusive, semi-impossible questionnaire for US passport applications https://web.archive.org/web/20110427025422/https://www.consumertraveler.com/today/state-dept-wants-to-make-it-harder-to-get-a-passport/

#10yrsago A Burglar’s Guide to the City: burglary as architectural criticism https://memex.craphound.com/2016/04/25/a-burglars-guide-to-the-city-burglary-as-architectural-criticism/

#10yrsago EFF to FDA: the DMCA turns medical implants into time-bombs https://www.eff.org/files/2016/04/22/electronic_frontier_foundation_comments_cybersecurity_in_medical_devices_.pdf

#10yrsago James Clapper: Snowden accelerated cryptography adoption by 7 years https://web.archive.org/web/20160425161451/https://theintercept.com/2016/04/25/spy-chief-complains-that-edward-snowden-sped-up-spread-of-encryption-by-7-years/

#10yrsago Australian MP sets river on fire https://web.archive.org/web/20170518083229/https://www.yahoo.com/news/australian-politician-sets-river-fire-protest-fracking-064640159.html

#10yrsago Fantasy accounting: how the biggest companies in America turn real losses into paper profits https://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/24/business/fantasy-math-is-helping-companies-spin-losses-into-profits.html

#10yrsago Leading Republicans send letters in support of Dennis Hastert, pedophile https://www.chicagotribune.com/2016/04/22/more-than-40-letters-in-support-of-hastert-made-public-before-sentencing/

#5yrsago Guess who's doing a usury in Iowa https://pluralistic.net/2021/04/24/peloton-usury/#going-nowhere-fast

#1yrago Every complex ecosystem has parasites https://pluralistic.net/2025/04/24/hermit-kingdom/#simpler-times

---

Upcoming appearances (permalink)

• NYC: Enshittification at Commonweal Ventures, Apr 29
  https://luma.com/ssgfvqz8

• NYC: Techidemic with Sarah Jeong, Tochi Onyebuchi and Alia Dastagir (PEN World Voices), Apr 30
  https://worldvoices.pen.org/event/techidemic/

• Barcelona: Internet no tiene que ser un vertedero (Global Digital Rights Forum), May 13
  https://encuentroderechosdigitales.com/en/

• Berlin: Re:publica, May 18-20
  https://re-publica.com/de/news/rp26-sprecher-cory-doctorow

• Berlin: Enshittification at Otherland Books, May 19
  https://www.otherland-berlin.de/de/event-details/cory-doctorow.html

• Hay-on-Wye: HowTheLightGetsIn, May 22-25
  https://howthelightgetsin.org/festivals/hay/big-ideas-2

• SXSW London, Jun 2
  https://www.sxswlondon.com/session/how-big-tech-broke-the-internet-b3c4a901

• NYC: The Reverse Centaur's Guide to Life After AI with Jonathan Coulton (The Strand), Jun 24
  https://www.strandbooks.com/cory-doctorow-the-reverse-centaur-s-guide-to-life-after-ai.html

---

Recent appearances (permalink)

• Artificial Intelligence: The Ultimate Disruptor, with Astra Taylor and Yoshua Bengio (CBC Ideas)
  https://www.cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-23-ideas/clip/16210039-artificial-intelligence-the-ultimate-disruptor

• When Do Platforms Stop Innovating and Start Extracting? (InnovEU)
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cccDR0YaMt8

• Pete "Mayor" Buttigieg (No Gods No Mayors)
  https://www.patreon.com/posts/pete-mayor-with-155614612

• The internet is getting worse (CBC The National)
  https://youtu.be/dCVUCdg3Uqc?si=FMcA0EI_Mi13Lw-P

• Do you feel screwed over by big tech? (Ontario Today)
  https://www.cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-45-ontario-today/clip/16203024-do-feel-screwed-big-tech

---

Latest books (permalink)

• "Canny Valley": A limited edition collection of the collages I create for Pluralistic, self-published, September 2025 https://pluralistic.net/2025/09/04/illustrious/#chairman-bruce

• "Enshittification: Why Everything Suddenly Got Worse and What to Do About It," Farrar, Straus, Giroux, October 7 2025
  https://us.macmillan.com/books/9780374619329/enshittification/

• "Picks and Shovels": a sequel to "Red Team Blues," about the heroic era of the PC, Tor Books (US), Head of Zeus (UK), February 2025 (https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250865908/picksandshovels).

• "The Bezzle": a sequel to "Red Team Blues," about prison-tech and other grifts, Tor Books (US), Head of Zeus (UK), February 2024 (thebezzle.org).

• "The Lost Cause:" a solarpunk novel of hope in the climate emergency, Tor Books (US), Head of Zeus (UK), November 2023 (http://lost-cause.org).

• "The Internet Con": A nonfiction book about interoperability and Big Tech (Verso) September 2023 (http://seizethemeansofcomputation.org). Signed copies at Book Soup (https://www.booksoup.com/book/9781804291245).

• "Red Team Blues": "A grabby, compulsive thriller that will leave you knowing more about how the world works than you did before." Tor Books http://redteamblues.com.

• "Chokepoint Capitalism: How to Beat Big Tech, Tame Big Content, and Get Artists Paid, with Rebecca Giblin", on how to unrig the markets for creative labor, Beacon Press/Scribe 2022 https://chokepointcapitalism.com

---

Upcoming books (permalink)

• "The Reverse-Centaur's Guide to AI," a short book about being a better AI critic, Farrar, Straus and Giroux, June 2026 (https://us.macmillan.com/books/9780374621568/thereversecentaursguidetolifeafterai/)

• "Enshittification, Why Everything Suddenly Got Worse and What to Do About It" (the graphic novel), Firstsecond, 2026

• "The Post-American Internet," a geopolitical sequel of sorts to Enshittification, Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2027

• "Unauthorized Bread": a middle-grades graphic novel adapted from my novella about refugees, toasters and DRM, FirstSecond, 2027

• "The Memex Method," Farrar, Straus, Giroux, 2027

---

Colophon (permalink)

Today's top sources:

Currently writing: "The Post-American Internet," a sequel to "Enshittification," about the better world the rest of us get to have now that Trump has torched America. Third draft completed. Submitted to editor.

• "The Reverse Centaur's Guide to AI," a short book for Farrar, Straus and Giroux about being an effective AI critic. LEGAL REVIEW AND COPYEDIT COMPLETE.

• "The Post-American Internet," a short book about internet policy in the age of Trumpism. PLANNING.

• A Little Brother short story about DIY insulin PLANNING

---

This work – excluding any serialized fiction – is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. That means you can use it any way you like, including commercially, provided that you attribute it to me, Cory Doctorow, and include a link to pluralistic.net.

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Quotations and images are not included in this license; they are included either under a limitation or exception to copyright, or on the basis of a separate license. Please exercise caution.

---

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READ CAREFULLY: By reading this, you agree, on behalf of your employer, to release me from all obligations and waivers arising from any and all NON-NEGOTIATED agreements, licenses, terms-of-service, shrinkwrap, clickwrap, browsewrap, confidentiality, non-disclosure, non-compete and acceptable use policies ("BOGUS AGREEMENTS") that I have entered into with your employer, its partners, licensors, agents and assigns, in perpetuity, without prejudice to my ongoing rights and privileges. You further represent that you have the authority to release me from any BOGUS AGREEMENTS on behalf of your employer.

ISSN: 3066-764X

Researchers working with data from the Internet Archive have discovered that a third of websites created since 2022 are AI-generated. The team of researchers—which includes people from Stanford, the Imperial College London, and the Internet Archive—published their findings online in a paper titled “The Impact of AI-Generated Text on the Internet.” The research also found that all this AI-generated text is making the web more cheery and less verbose.

Inspired by the Dead Internet Theory—the idea that much of the internet is now just bots talking back and forth—the team set out to find out how ChatGPT and its competitors had reshaped the internet since 2022. “The proliferation of AI-generated and AI-assisted text on the internet is feared to contribute to a degradation in semantic and stylistic diversity, factual accuracy, and other negative developments,” the researchers write in the paper. “We find that by mid-2025, roughly 35% of newly published websites were classified as AI-generated or AI-assisted, up from zero before ChatGPT's launch in late 2022.”

“I find the sheer speed of the AI takeover of the web quite staggering,” Jonáš Doležal, an AI researcher at Stanford and co-author of the paper, told 404 Media. “After decades of humans shaping it, a significant portion of the internet has become defined by AI in just three years. We're witnessing, in my opinion, a major transformation of the digital landscape in a fraction of the time it took to build in the first place.”

The researchers also tested six common critiques of AI-generated text. Does it lead to a shrinking of viewpoints? Does it create more disinformation as hallucinations proliferate? Does online writing feel more sanitized and cheerful? Does it frail to cite its sources? Does it create strings of words with low semantic density? Has it forced writing into a monoculture where unique voices vanish and a generic, uniform style takes hold?

To answer these questions, the researchers partnered with the Internet Archive to pull samples of websites from the 33 months between August 2022 and May 2025. “For each sampled URL, we retrieve the oldest available archived snapshot via the Wayback Machine’s CDX Server API,” the research said. “The raw HTML of each snapshot is downloaded and stored locally for subsequent processing.”

The researchers took the extracted website text and used the AI-detection software Pangram v3 to find AI-created websites. The team tested several AI-detection tools and found Pangram v3 had the highest detection rate. Once Pangram v3 had identified an AI-generated website, the researchers used that website as a sample to test their other six hypotheses. “For each hypothesis, we define a measurable signal, compute it for each monthly sample of websites, and test whether it correlates with the aggregate AI likelihood score across months,” the research said.

To test if AI was creating an internet full of falsehoods, for example, the team extracted fact based claims from the websites they’d selected and then paid human factcheckers to verify them. To figure out if AI is citing its sources, the team computed the outbound link density in AI-generated text. 

To the surprise of the researchers, only two of the six theories they tested about the effects of AI-generated text seemed true. AI was making the internet less semantically diverse and more positive overall, but it wasn’t causing a proliferation in lies or cutting out its sources.

“The most surprising result was that our Truth Decay hypothesis wasn't confirmed,” Doležal said. “It's worth noting that we were specifically looking for an increase in verifiably untrue statements, which we didn't find. But it could still be the case that AI is quietly increasing the volume of unverifiable claims, ones that can't be checked against existing fact-checking tools and infrastructure. Or it may simply be that the internet wasn't a particularly truth-adhering place to begin with.”

The researchers said they’d continue to study how AI-generated text shaped the internet. “We're now working with the Internet Archive to turn this into a continuous tool that keeps providing this signal going forward, rather than a single fixed snapshot bounded by the static nature of a paper,” Maty Bohacek, a student researcher at Stanford and one of the co-authors of the paper, told 404 Media. “We're also interested in adding more granularity: looking at which kinds of websites are most affected, broken down by category or language, and generally providing more nuance about where these impacts are landing.”

For Doležal, studies like this are critical for ensuring a useful and productive internet. “As AI-generated content spreads, the challenge is finding a role for these models that doesn’t just result in a sanitized, repetitive web,” he said. “Rather than forcing models to be perfectly compliant and agreeable, allowing them to have a more distinct personality or ‘friction’ might help them act as a creative partner rather than a replacement for human voice.”

A senior staff scientist at Google’s artificial intelligence laboratory DeepMind, Alexander Lerchner, argues in a new paper that no AI or other computational system will ever become conscious. That conclusion appears to conflict with the narrative from AI company CEOs, including DeepMind’s own Demis Hassabis, who repeatedly talks about the advent of artificial general intelligence. Hassabis recently claimed AGI is “going to be something like 10 times the impact of the Industrial Revolution, but happening at 10 times the speed.”

The paper shows the divergence between the self-serving narratives AI companies promote in the media and how they collapse under rigorous examination. Other philosophers and researchers of consciousness I talked to said Lerchner’s paper, titled “The Abstraction Fallacy: Why AI Can Simulate But Not Instantiate Consciousness,” is strong and that they’re glad to see the argument come from one of the big AI companies, but that other experts in the field have been making the exact same arguments for decades. 

“I think he [Lerchner] arrived at this conclusion on his own and he's reinvented the wheel and he's not well read, especially in philosophical areas and definitely not in biology,” Johannes Jäger, an evolutionary systems biologist and philosopher, told me. 

Lerchner’s paper is complicated and filled with jargon, but the argument broadly boils down to the point that any AI system is ultimately “mapmaker-dependent,” meaning it “requires an active, experiencing cognitive agent”—a human—to “alphabetize continuous physics into a finite set of meaningful states.” In other words, it needs a person to first organize the world in way that is useful to the AI system, like, for example, the way armies of low paid workers in Africa label images in order to create training data for AI. 

The so-called “abstraction fallacy” is the mistaken belief that because we’ve organized data in such a way that allows AI to manipulate language, symbols, and images in a way that mimics sentient behavior, that it could actually achieve consciousness. But, as Lerchner argues, this would be impossible without a physical body. 

“You have many other motivations as a human being. It's a bit more complicated than that, but all of those spring from the fact that you have to eat, breathe, and you have to constantly invest physical work just to stay alive, and no non-living system does that,” Jäger told me. “An LLM doesn't do that. It's just a bunch of patterns on a hard drive. Then it gets prompted and it runs until the task is finished and then it's done. So it doesn't have any intrinsic meaning. Its meaning comes from the way that some human agent externally has defined a meaning.”

One could imagine an embodied AI programmed with human-like physical needs, and Jäger talked about why a system like that couldn’t achieve consciousness as well, but that’s beyond the scope of this article. There are mountains of literature and decades of research that have gone into these questions, and almost none of it is cited in Lerchner’s paper. 

“I'm in sympathy with 99 percent of everything that he [Lerchner] says,” Mark Bishop, a professor of cognitive computing at Goldsmiths, University of London, told me. “My only point of contention is that all these arguments have been presented years and years ago.”

Both Bishop and Jäger said that it was good, but odd, that Google allowed Lerchner to publish the paper. Both said the argument Lerchner makes, and that they agree with, is not an obscure philosophical point irrelevant to the average user, but that the claim that AI can’t achieve consciousness means that there’s a hard cap on what AI could accomplish practically and commercially. For example, Jäger and Bishop said AGI, and the impact 10 times the Industrial Revolution that DeepMind CEO Hassabis predicts, is not likely according to this perspective. 

“[Elon] Musk himself has argued that to get level five autonomy [in self-driving cars] you need generalized autonomy” which is Musk’s term for AGI, Bishop said. 

Lerchner’s paper argues that AGI without sentience is possible, saying that “the development of highly capable Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) does not inherently lead to the creation of a novel moral patient, but rather to the refinement of a highly sophisticated, non-sentient tool.” DeepMind is also actively operating as if AGI is coming. As I reported last year, for example, it was hiring for a “post-AGI” research scientist. 

Lerchner’s paper includes a disclaimer at the bottom that says “The theoretical framework and proofs detailed herein represent the author’s own research and conclusions. They do not necessarily reflect the official stance, views, or strategic policies of his employer.” The paper was originally published on March 10 and is still featured on Google DeepMind’s site. The PDF of the paper itself, hosted on philpapers.org, originally included Google DeepMind letterhead, but appears to have been replaced with a new PDF that removes Google’s branding from the paper, and moved the same disclaimer to the top of the paper, after I reached out for comment on April 20. Google did not respond to that request for comment. 

“We can imagine many financial and legislative reasons why Google would be sanguine with a conclusion that says computations can't be consciousness,” Bishop told me. “Because if the converse was true, and bizarrely enough here in Europe, we had some nutters who tried to get legislation through the European Parliament to give computational systems rights just a few years ago, which seems to be just utterly stupid. But you can imagine that Google will be quite happy for people to not think their systems are conscious. That means they might be less subject to legislation either in the US or anywhere in the world.”

Jäger said that he’s happy to see a Google DeepMind scientist publish this research, but said that AI companies could learn a lot by talking to the researchers and educating themselves with the work Lerchner failed to cite in his paper, or simply didn’t know existed. 

“The AI research community is extremely insular in a lot of ways,” Jager said. “For example, none of these guys know anything about the biological origins of words like ‘agency’ and ‘intelligence’ that they use all the time. They have absolutely frighteningly no clue. And I'm talking about Geoffrey Hinton and top people, Turing Prize winners and Nobel Prize winners that are absolutely marvelously clueless about both the conceptual history of these terms, where they came from in their own history of AI, and that they're used in a very weird way right now. And I'm always very surprised that there is so little interest. I guess it's just a high pressure environment and they go ahead developing things they don't have time to read.”

Emily Bender, a Professor of Linguistics at the University of Washington and co-author of The AI Con: How to Fight Big Tech’s Hype and Create the Future We Want, told me that Lerchner might have been told that he’s replicating old work, or that he should at least cite it, if he had gone through a normal peer-review process. 

“Much of what's happening in this research space right now is you get these paper-shaped objects coming out of the corporate labs,” but that do not go through a proper scientific paper publishing process. 

Bender also told me that the field of computer science and humanity more broadly “if computer science could understand itself as one discipline among peers instead of the way that it sees itself, especially in these AGI labs, as the pinnacle of human achievement, and everybody else is just domain experts [...] it would be a better world if we didn't have that setup.”

Michael Kalus posted a photo:

The large Japanese characters across the top:
* 梅小路機関庫 (Umekoji Kikankō)
* Meaning: Umekoji Engine Depot