Micron, which makes about a quarter of all the computer memory and flash in the world, is shutting down Crucial, its retail store. Crucial is closing in February next year — the AI hyperscalers are offering a ton of money to buy most of Micron’s output, for way more than consumers will pay. [press release, archive]
Anyone who follows computer component prices saw this coming. The average price on two 8GB sticks of DDR4-3200 RAM went up from $40–$50 in June to $110 in December. A 1TB M.2 solid-state disk went from $100 to about $125. [PCPartPicker; PCPartPicker]
Just before Micron’s announcement, Reuters published a long piece on how AI is completely warping global supply chains for electronics, and particularly memory chips — both RAM and the flash chips in solid-state drives. The AI companies have been scrambling to nail down supplies as fast as they can. [Reuters]
This is a wide-ranging disaster for consumer electronics in general.
It’s not as good news as you might think for the memory manufacturers either — it takes them a couple of years to build out to meet demand. AI is a bubble and they know it. So they’re increasing capacity a bit, but not so much.
Plus, the new capacity will be used to make very fast High Bandwidth Memory, running as close to the number-crunching chip as possible rather than being a plug-in module. So when AI crashes, there won’t be a pile of surplus memory going cheap. Like the Nvidia chips it’s attached to, this stuff is born to become e-waste.
SK Hynix, who make one-third of all the memory, says the memory shortage will last through to the last quarter of 2027 — two more years of this.
SK is also one of the big suppliers for OpenAI’s Stargate project. Chey Tae-won, chairman of SK Group, says:
We’re receiving requests for memory supplies from so many companies that we’re worried about how we’ll be able to handle all of them. If we fail to supply them, they could face a situation where they can’t do business at all.
Oh no, won’t someone think of the hyperscalers!
Older memory won’t save you either. Micron and Samsung, who make another third of all the memory, plan to stop making DDR4 modules and stick to the more expensive DDR5 — or just the high-bandwidth memory.
The memory crisis affects all of electronics, consumer and enterprise. Your laptops will cost more. Your phones will cost more. The manufacturers have some inventory backlog — but it’s running low.
Mind you, I wouldn’t be surprised if Microsoft extends Windows 10 support yet again, so not too many of those stranded customers even look at Linux rather than spend twice the price on a new PC for Windows 11.
So what can you do? My advice: assume you’re stuck with your computer and phone for a few years. If you have the cash, upgrade now. Fill your PC with all the RAM it can take. You need a new (or new-old) phone, get it straight away.
It’ll suck and cost too much, because RAM and disks are already twice the price. But it’ll only get worse for the next two years. Shops are already restricting sales. You’ll be stripping old laptops for parts.
It’s time to get frugal and practice for Great Depression 2: Depress Harder. When the AI bubble does pop, everything else will still be broken. Great times, everyone! And merry Christmas.























