Scientists have peered inside the Sun and observed subtle shifts and “glitches” that have occurred over four decades, shedding light on the enigmatic long-term vibrations of our star, reports a study published on Tuesday in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society.
The Sun goes through a roughly 11-year cycle that includes a period of high and low activity, known as solar maximum and minimum. The past few cycles have revealed changes in solar behavior that could have implications for predicting space weather and unraveling the internal dynamics of our Sun, along with other Sun-like stars.
To drill down on this mystery, researchers with the Birmingham Solar-Oscillations Network (BiSON), a network of telescopes that have monitored the Sun since the 1970s, compared the last four solar minima using this unique 40-year dataset and focused on internal vibrations that make the sun subtly oscillate.
“The entire Sun oscillates in a globally coherent way, and the oscillations are formed by sound waves trapped inside the Sun that make it resonate just like a musical instrument,”said Bill Chaplin, a professor of astrophysics at the University of Birmingham who co-authored the study, in a call with 404 Media.
“For this particular study, we were interested in seeing whether there are differences in what the Sun is doing in its structure when you focus on the periods or epochs when the Sun is very quiet,” he continued. “The last few cycles have seen some quite marked changes in behavior.”
For example, scientists have been perplexed for years by an unusually long and quiet solar minimum between cycle 23 to 24, which occurred from 2008 to 2009. Chaplin and his colleagues were able to use BiSON’s long record of asteroseismology—the study of stellar interiors—to directly contrast the interior vibrations of the Sun during this minimum to others.
“There were hints that there were things that were different” about this cycle, said Chaplin. “But now that we have the cycle 24-25 minimum—the last one in about 2019—in the bag, then we thought, ‘okay, now's the time to actually go back and look at this.’”
The team specifically looked for an acoustic wave “glitch” caused by an interior layer in which helium atoms lose electrons, producing a detectable change in the Sun’s internal structure. This glitch was significantly stronger during the 2008–2009 minimum, suggesting that the Sun’s outer interior was slightly hotter and allowed sound waves to travel faster at that time of magnetic weakness.
“The ionizing helium affects the speed at which the sound waves move through that region,” explained Chaplin. “It leaves a characteristic imprint.”
“It's not just that there is a difference with the other cycles, but it's starting to tell us about what physically has really changed beneath the surface,” he added. “They're quite subtle changes, but it's nevertheless giving us clues as to what is actually happening beneath the Sun during this very quiet period.”
The results confirm that the Sun doesn’t return to the same minimum baseline at the end of every cycle, and its activity varies within timescales of decades and centuries. For example, Chaplin pointed to one bizarrely long quiet period from 1645 to 1715, known as the Maunder Minimum.
Astronomers during this time marvelled at the prolonged lack of visible sunspots on the Sun’s surface, a sign of extremely low solar activity. Centuries later, BiSON and other solar observatories are allowing scientists to study the interior dynamics behind these shifts in depth for the first time.
“This is the first step in actually demonstrating that there are changes,” Chaplin said. “Does this mean that there are systematic changes in the way that the Sun is generating its field? It's really only now, because we have this long dataset, that we can start to ask questions like that. Previously, we just didn't have enough data to say.”
Scientists hope to keep recording the long-term behavior of the Sun with projects like BiSON so that we can better understand its mercurial nature over time. This is interesting work on its own merits, but it is also useful for refining forecasts of space storms that can wreak havoc on power grids and space assets (while also producing pretty auroras).
Chaplin also nodded to the European space telescope PLAnetary Transits and Oscillations of stars (PLATO), due for launch in 2027. This mission will search for analogous oscillations in stars beyond the Sun, building on similar work conducted by NASA’s retired Kepler space telescope.
Studying the vibrations of the Sun and other similar stars is not only important for life here on Earth; it also has implications in the search for extraterrestrial life, because local solar activity is one key to assessing the habitability of star systems similar to our own.
“The data that we have on other stars from Kepler has really helped to understand and get a better picture of the cyclic variability of other stars, like the Sun,” Chaplin concluded. “But it's still not an entirely clear picture; let's put it that way. Seismology now enables you to do really detailed analysis of stars that you can't do by other means.”
The United States and Israel launched an attack on Iran on Saturday morning, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as well as several senior regime figures and striking multiple sites across the country. Iran retaliated by firing at targets across the region, including Israel, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE and other Gulf states. The conflict is ongoing despite no declaration of war by the US Congress. US President Donald Trump initially called for regime change in Iran but has since delivered a mixed message about the aims of “Operation Epic Fury”.
Israel has said it dropped more than 2,000 bombs in the first 30 hours of the war. While the US claims to have struck over 1,000 targets in the first 24 hours, with President Trump stating that “bombs will fall everywhere”. In response, Iran is reported to have launched at least 390 missiles and 830 drones in the first two days. Bellingcat has been monitoring strikes across the region, including those that caused civilian harm, and identified a wide variety of weapons have been used so far, including missiles and drones.
US-Made Weapons and Tomahawks Launched
The US reported that some of the first weapons they launched were Tomahawk missiles. Footage from the US McFaul also showed Tomahawks being launched.
Imagery of many other different munitions used by the US, Israel and Iran have appeared on social media.
This article covers some of the munitions Bellingcat has seen imagery of as the war enters its fourth day.
Many of the weapons used so far have also been deployed in other recent US conflicts, including the 12-day Israel-Iran war, and US strikes in Yemen and Venezuela.
The US is the major supplier of arms to allies in the region, including for Israel, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, and Jordan.
On Sunday, the US Department Of Defence (DOD) published photos showing weapons being prepared for loading on aircrafts, including the MK-80 series of bombs like MK-82 500-pound bombs, and BLU-109 2,000-pound ‘bunker busters’ equipped with Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) bomb guidance kits.
Left: Feb. 27. 500-pound bombs equipped with JDAM guidance kits. Right: Feb. 28. 2,000-pound BLU-109 ‘bunker busters’ equipped with JDAM guidance kits. Sources: US Navy/DVIDS and US NAVY/DVIDS.
Image of a Precision Strike Missile being fired in the first 24 hours of the war. Source: US CENTCOM.
Many of the weapons deployed by the US have also been used by Israel. This includes the MK-80 series of bombs, BLU-109 bombs and Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) bomb guidance kits.
A Feb. 28. image shows an IAF F-15 equipped with a BLU-109 bomb with a JDAM guidance kit. Source: Israeli Air Force.
Israel also produces some of its own munitions, which they released video or photos of since the start of the conflict, including MK-83 1,000-pound bombs equipped with Israeli SPICE-1000 bomb guidance kits.
A Mar. 1. screenshot showing IAF personnel loading a MK-83 1,000 pound bomb equipped with a SPICE-1000 bomb guidance kit. Source: IAF.
Israel also produces RAMPAGE missiles, visible in the image below.
A Feb. 28. image showing an IAF F-16 with a RAMPAGE missile. Source: IAF.
On Sunday, the DOD said they had used the Low-cost Unmanned Combat Attack System (LUCAS) one-way attack drones in strikes. The LUCAS drone is a US copy of the Iranian Shahed one-way attack drone.
A video of a crashed LUCAS drone has subsequently appeared online, reportedly in Iraq.
While Bellingcat could not geolocate this video, then men seen in the footage can be heard speaking Arabic while US CENTCOM has said that this is the first time they have used this drone in combat.
Local Iraqi residents are taking the newly deployed, nearly intact American LUCAS drone for themselves. pic.twitter.com/fbx411iAYU
— Special Kherson Cat (@bayraktar_1love) March 2, 2026
A video shows a LUCAS drone that allegedly crashed in Iraq.
Iranian Attacks
Iran has retaliated by firing one-way attack drones, including Shahed variants, and missiles at Israel, and US-bases in various countries across the region, including UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan and Iraq.
A Feb. 28. video shows a Shahed drone hitting a residential tower in Bahrain.
Many missiles have a booster, a rocket motor that detaches from the missile after it is expended. These boosters fall to the ground under the flight path of the missile.
Bellingcat verified that Iranian missile boosters have fallen in nearby countries caught in the crossfire, including Qatar and Jordan (see below post geolocated to Al-Hashmi St. in Irbid, Jordan), while some Israeli boosters have reportedly fallen in Iraq.
A Feb. 28. post shows an Iranian ballistic missile booster that fell on Al-Hashmi St. in Irbid, Jordan.
Iranian Missiles Intercepted
The US and Israel, as well as several Gulf countries, have fired missiles, intended to destroy Iranian missiles or drones in the air before they reach their targets. Many Iranian weapons have been intercepted, but others have successfully hit, including in a strike on a US command post in Kuwait, killing six US troops.
Most ballistic missile interceptors are “hit-to-kill” where they are designed to destroy missiles by the impact. These interceptors have their own components that fall to the ground, as well as the debris from interceptions.
Feb. 28.Two photos showing the same remnants of a US-made Patriot Air Defense System PAC-3 CRI interceptor missile published by the UAE MOD. The UAE operates the Patriot system. Source: UAE Ministry of Defense.
A Sea of Unverified Images and Misidentification of Munitions
Many close-up images of munition debris have been posted on social media over recent days which are difficult to geolocate. While we have not been able to verify the location of these munitions, we used reverse image search tools to verify they had not been posted online prior to the current conflict. The munition remnants are also consistent with those used by the US, Israel and Iran. But as we cannot geolocate or chronolocate them yet, we cannot fully verify them. Many of these images have been posted with false claims about the object and who fired it.
Despite Bellingcat being unable to fully verify them, we are including a selection of them with accurate identifications, due to the likelihood that more images of these same objects will continue to appear online as the war continues.
One example of incorrectly identified munitions, is the below picture of an aircraft’s external fuel tank, or drop tank that was posted on Telegram on March 1 alongside the claim that it is an Israeli missile.
A Mar. 1. image shows a drop tank from an Israeli jet reportedly found in Anbar, Iraq. Source: NAYA.
Drop tanks are used on jets to extend the range and are jettisoned after use, resulting in these tanks falling to the ground. These tanks have been mistaken for missile parts in previous conflicts.
Despite Iran’s prevalent use of missiles, not all missile boosters are Iranian. On February 28 missile boosters from Israeli air-launched ballistic missiles were reportedly found just east of Tikrit, Iraq. The below image shows the booster from Israel’s Blue Sparrow series, and can be matched to images previously identified and posted on the likes of the Open Source Munitions Portal.
A Feb. 28. post shows an Israeli Blue Sparrow series missile booster, reportedly found in Duraji, Iraq.
Additionally, unexploded WDU-36/B warheads from Tomahawk missiles were reportedly found –, one in Kirkuk, Iraq and one found near Jablah, Syria. Tomahawk warheads and other remnants are frequently misidentified, often as drones.
Left: Feb. 28. Unexploded Tomahawk warhead reportedly found in Kirkuk, Iraq. Right: Mar. 2. Unexploded Tomahawk warhead reportedly found near Jablah, Syria. Sources: NAYA and Qalaat Al Mudiq.
These titanium cased warheads comprise a small part of the much larger Tomahawk missile, and have been found intact in numerous countries when the warhead has failed to explode, as seen in images shared on the Open Source Munitions Portal.
Unexploded Tomahawk warheads from strikes in other conflicts have also been identified by the Open Source Munitions Portal .
Remnants of an Israeli Arrow 2 interceptor missile were posted online, falsely identified as an Iranian missile, and were allegedly found in eastern Syria. These images could again be matched to those found from previous conflicts on the Open Source Munitions Portal.
An Iranian missile fell in Al-Shoula area, south of DeirEzzor eastern Syria!. pic.twitter.com/TsWVuda2nf
A Israeli Arrow 2 interceptor missile falsely identified as as an Iranian missile in a post on X.
An Ancient US Munition Used by Iran
One photo of a remnant reportedly found in Ahvaz, Iran, included a false claim that it was a US ATACMS missile. Bellingcat was able to confirm the image does not match ATACMS construction by comparing it to imagery of that munition. We have as yet been unable to confirm if it was indeed located in Ahvaz, Iran – although we were able to identify the munition.
An actuator section of a MIM-23 HAWK missile, falsely identified by the post above as an ATACMS missile.
The markings on the remnant include an “FSN” or federal stock number, that can be looked up to identify the item. The FSN was replaced by the national stock number (NSN) in 1974, meaning this missile was produced prior to 1974.
The markings on a actuator section of a MIM-23 HAWK missile.
Bellingcat looked up the FSN/NSN (1410002343266) which corresponds with the US manufactured MIM-23B HAWK, an air defence missile.
There are many other US, Israeli and Iranian munitions that may have been used in the current conflict, but images have not yet appeared on social media.
With fresh strikes carried out overnight/ early Tuesday and President Trump saying that “likely more” US troops will die, the conflict continues to escalate and shows no sign of ceasing in the days ahead. And despite the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei the Iranian regime has vowed revenge and continued strikes against Israel, the US and their Gulf allies.
Bellingcat’s Carlos Gonzales, Jake Godin and Felix Matteo Lommerse contributed research to this article. Anisa Shabir from Bellingcat’s Volunteer Community also contributed to this piece.
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