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‘Highly Plausible’ Aliens on Europa Are Earthlings’ Descendants, Study Says

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‘Highly Plausible’ Aliens on Europa Are Earthlings’ Descendants, Study Says

Welcome back to the Abstract! Here are the stories this week that spread life across space, went stir crazy for science, held the colony together, and peacefully sat it out.

First, what if we went all the way to Europa only to find that some earthly bacteria already set up shop there? Then: red rum on the Red Planet, the palace intrigue of tropical wasps, and an afterlife in full lotus.

As always, for more of my work, check out my book First Contact: The Story of Our Obsession with Aliens, or subscribe to my personal newsletter the BeX Files

That’s one small step for a dust-borne bacterium…

Osmanov, Zaza. “Earth as a potential source of life for Europa’s subsurface ocean.” International Journal of Astrobiology.

Europa, the ice moon of Jupiter, is considered one of the most promising candidates in the search for extraterrestrial life due to its vast subsurface ocean. But imagine what a trip it would be to not just find aliens on this world, but to learn that they originally hailed from Earth.

That’s the premise of a new study that investigates “the possibility of dust particles containing living bacteria ejected from Earth reaching Europa and landing on its surface,” according to author Zaza Osmanov of the Free University of Tbilisi. 

“Life on Earth originated at least 3.55 billion years ago, which implies that for approximately that long, Earth has been shedding life-bearing particles into surrounding space,” Osmanov said in the study. “Hence, if favorable conditions exist elsewhere in the Solar System and can be accessed by dust particles, the transport of life from Earth appears plausible and may have been occurring over the course of several billion years.”

This idea that life might travel between planets, or even star systems, is called panspermia. In addition to Earth life potentially expanding beyond our planet, scientists have previously speculated that life on Earth was itself seeded by microbes from another world, such as Mars. 

To game out a scenario in which earthly bacteria might reach Europa, Osmanov estimated the rate at which dust-borne bacteria is dislodged from Earth by impacts and how it might then endure a long journey through space and survive a crash into the icescape of Europa.  

He concluded that many trillions of life-bearing dust grains from Earth could have reached the moon’s surface over tens of millions of years. From there, surviving microbes may have spent generations shimmying down through cracks in its ice shell, which is dozens of miles thick, into the dark waters of the ocean below. 

‘Highly Plausible’ Aliens on Europa Are Earthlings’ Descendants, Study Says
A close-up of the fractures in Europa’s ice shell. Image: NASA/JPL/University of Arizona

Though the deck would be stacked against these microbes, the high number of dust particles that Earth sloughs off into space “renders the existence of life on Europa highly plausible,” according to the study.

It’s worth noting that panspermia remains a topic of heated academic debate, in part because there are so many uncertainties about the process. For example, H. Jay Melosh, the late geophysicist and panspermia expert, also assessed the odds that Earth life could relocate to Europa and came to the opposite conclusion as Osmanov.

“If life should be found in the oceans of Europa or Enceladus, it is very likely that it’s indigenous rather than seeded from Earth, Mars or (especially) another solar system," Melosh said while presenting findings at the 2019 meeting of the American Geophysical Union, according to Space.com.

Ultimately, we won’t know until we go! NASA’s Europa Clipper is currently on its way to Jupiter to take a closer look at its namesake moon from orbit, and to scout out potential sites for surface exploration in the future. Perhaps decades from now we’ll finally be able to answer the tantalizing question of whether the seas of Europa are inhabited—and if so, if the aliens are homegrown or descended from spacefaring Earthlings. 

In other news…

The Overlook Hotel, but it’s in space

Cantisani, Andrea, Schmutz, Jan B., et al. “Social interactions in isolated, confined, and extreme environments: A study of Antarctic winter teams using wearable sensors.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

It’s one thing for a bacterium to make an interplanetary voyage; sending humans across deep space is orders of magnitude harder—and not just because we are flimsy mortal fleshbags. There is also the psychological toll of spending months or years in a confined space on a long-duration mission, such a trip to Mars. 

To anticipate these challenges, scientists enlisted 12 crew members on a 10-month overwintering mission at Antarctica’s Concordia Station to self-report feelings of loneliness and paranoia, while wearing proximity sensors that allowed the team to monitor their movements. 

‘Highly Plausible’ Aliens on Europa Are Earthlings’ Descendants, Study Says
The Concordia Station, a French–Italian research facility on the Antarctic plateau. Image: Jessica Struder/ University of Zurich

The results revealed “a progressive deterioration in both individual psychological outcome and team dynamics” in which “loneliness and paranoid thoughts increased over time,” according to researchers co-led by Andrea Cantisani of the University of Bern and Jan Schmutz of the University of Zurich.

The team even singled out one participant who “reported unusually high scores…corresponding to severe levels of paranoid ideation.” Reading the study, it’s hard not to be reminded of John Carpenter's The Thing, or the descent into space madness depicted in movies like Event Horizon or Sunshine.

Indeed, the authors shouted out Stephen King’s The Shining as a fictional precursor to the study’s finding that “prolonged isolation [and] constant proximity does not necessarily strengthen relationships but can instead amplify tension, mistrust, and psychological strain.”

In other words, if astronauts start seeing ghostly masked revelers, murdered children, and mercurial bartenders popping up in their Mars base, it’s time to pack it in and head back to Earth. 

Stirring up a wasp’s nest—for science

Corbett, Owen R. et al. “Compensation of labour by noncompetitive individuals mitigates costs of aggressive succession contest in a social wasp.” Animal Behaviour.

Speaking of hostile social dynamics, it’s time to return to the “dynastic violence" beat. Long-time readers of this newsletter will know that I am a sucker for succession battles in eusocial animals such as naked mole rats or matricidal ants—which are ruled over by one breeding female queen.  

This week, scientists updated the genre by watching what happens when you remove queens of the tropical wasp species Polistes canadensis, a shift that increased colony-level aggression “approximately tenfold,” according to a new study. 

In the ensuing power vacuum, rival females vied for the crown through aggressive behaviors including bites, tackles, stings, and air fights. But even as some females took up arms (and stingers), the team was surprised to observe other wasps stepping into foraging or worker roles they had never occupied before to prevent the colony from collapsing in the chaotic interregnum. 

‘Highly Plausible’ Aliens on Europa Are Earthlings’ Descendants, Study Says
Screenshot from the study. Image: Corbett, Owen R. et al.

“Contrary to our predictions, these findings support the theory that some form of compensatory mechanism exists in this species, buffering the conflict of queen succession,” said researchers led by Owen R. Corbett of University College London. “This system, in which some individuals compete while others compensate, could be what allows species like P. canadensis to maintain colony function despite aggressive contest-based succession.”

To channel Cersei Lannister: When you play the game of thrones, you win or you…compensate. While that doesn’t have quite the same ring as the original quote, the wasp colonies definitely weathered their dynastic struggles better than Westeros in the end.

Live by the lotus, die by the lotus

Sun, Chenshuang et al. Multidisciplinary analysis reveals the genetic and dietary structure of the seated burials from Tang Dynasty Chang’an.” Journal of Archaeological Sciences: Reports.

Last, it’s time to take a seat—for eternity. That’s the idea behind a rare funerary custom called “seated burial,” in which bodies are arranged in an upright sitting posture, in contrast to the far more common practice of being “laid to rest” in a supine pose. 

In a new study, archaeologists examined four individuals who lived between the 7th and 9th centuries in what was then called the Chang’an region of northwest China and were buried in seated poses. The study offers “the first direct genetic evidence” to counter predictions that these burials imply a monastic lifestyle or a particular ethnic lineage, according to researchers led by Chenshuang Sun of Fudan University in Shanghai. 

“Our genomic data contradicts the hypothesis that seated burials have a unique origin from ancestors in northern or northeastern Asia” as “we find no evidence of significant differences between seated burial individuals and their contemporaries,” the team concluded. “Although Buddhist symbolic artifacts, such as pagoda-shaped jars, were found in one tomb, isotopic evidence contradicts strict adherence to vegetarian Buddhist precepts.”

In addition to refuting the special status of the skeletal sitters, the study also includes interesting asides, such as records of Buddhist monks who ended up in “seated death” after “passing away in the full-lotus position.” 

Seated burials have been unearthed across the globe, serving as a reminder to us all that we don’t have to take death lying down. 

Thanks for reading! See you next week.

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A Tokyo Building Offers an Elegant Answer to Urban Compression

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A Tokyo Building Offers an Elegant Answer to Urban Compression

On an 880-square-foot site in Toshima City—roughly the size of a generous one-bedroom apartment—Key Operation Inc. / Architects has produced a building that contains shops, clinics, cafés, maisonette residences, a curved atrium, a bouldering wall, a slide, and a hammock net suspended within a loft void. Located adjacent to the renewed Naka-Ikebukuro Park and just a two-minute walk from Ikebukuro Station’s East Exit, Clerestory Garden reaches a total floor area of approximately 5,000 square feet. That ratio, nearly six to one, is not unusual for central Tokyo, but what Clerestory Garden proposes is density that does not read as compression.

Modern living space with a climbing wall, fireplace, wooden furniture, open kitchen, and a suspended net ceiling.

Modern dining and kitchen area with wood finishes, large windows, built-in desk, and an overhead net suspended from the ceiling.

The project was conceived in relation to both Naka-Ikebukuro Park and Hareza Ikebukuro, the mixed-use cultural and commercial facility that opened in 2019. Once a sandy open space, the park has been renewed as a stone-paved plaza, a civic room of sorts that evokes the character of a European square and now supports cultural events and everyday public activity. Creating a sense of continuity with that plaza became a central theme of the building’s facade design.

Modern open-plan room with large windows, built-in wooden seating, a wall-mounted TV, and a kitchen sink in the foreground, with cityscape views outside.

Modern kitchen with light wood cabinets, built-in appliances, and a stainless steel sink on a white countertop; natural light enters from a window.

Floor-to-ceiling heights of approximately 13 feet—generous by any urban mixed-use standard—establish an interior register of expansiveness that the tight plan area would otherwise foreclose. The decision was enabled in part by the site’s relatively relaxed height restrictions, but the move to exploit that allowance fully, rather than simply meet code minimums, reflects the studio’s deliberate spatial philosophy. Here, height is not treated as leftover zoning capacity, but as a tool for producing breath, light, and spatial complexity within a compact urban envelope.

Modern apartment interior with wooden floors, large windows, built-in mirrors, archway, and open dining area with ample natural light.

Modern bathroom with a wood vanity, sink, mirror, pendant light, and a separate toilet area with a sliding door and beige tiled walls.

The residential levels on the seventh and eighth floors carry this logic forward, with the maisonette units organized across two floors. The introduction of lofts transforms each into a quartet: a four-level domestic environment compressed into a two-story envelope. Circulation becomes part of the living experience. A slide connects levels, staircases double as spatial events, and movement through the apartment is choreographed rather than merely accommodated.

A modern interior with wooden stairs and an adjacent built-in wooden slide, next to large windows overlooking a cityscape.

A modern indoor staircase with wooden steps and handrail, white walls, and an open doorway leading to a room with wooden flooring.

The eighth floor pushes the idea furthest, with a curved atrium opening the living-dining space vertically and a net suspended within it to create a hammock-like platform, accessible from above via the bouldering wall. Private rooms and wet areas are arranged on the seventh floor, allowing the domestic program to unfold as a three-dimensional sequence rather than a conventional stacked plan. Below the residences, the building’s commercial section applies the same cross-sectional intelligence. The first- and second-floor tenant spaces can operate independently, but they are also designed to be joined through internal stairs and a dumbwaiter, while the third through sixth floors are envisioned for shops, clinics, and similar uses.

A modern, minimalist interior with light wood flooring, two doorways leading to rooms with large windows, and a partial staircase on the left.

Small, empty room with a wide window overlooking city buildings, light wood flooring, and built-in wooden storage units on the right wall.

The transom gardens—three-dimensional planting installed within the approximately seven-foot-high windows and the transom sections above them—create interstitial green volumes between the interior tenant spaces and the street. Wall greening was considered, but the architects instead chose this recessed planting strategy to maintain visibility into the tenant spaces while giving the façade a softer, more verdant presence in relation to the plaza. The result is greenery that is not merely applied to the exterior, but layered into the building section itself. Set back into recesses above a lower portion that extends to the site boundary, the transom gardens allow the building to maximize leasable floor area while introducing porous, planted depth along the facade.

Narrow hallway with wooden flooring and built-in wooden shelves, leading to a window with a city view and a small desk area.

A small, modern workspace with wooden shelves, a built-in desk, large windows, and a city view in the background.

That layered strategy continues in the building’s structure. Rather than matching the structural frame to the polygonal exterior shape of the site, the architects adopted a simpler central grid for cost and construction efficiency. The exterior could still respond to the irregular site geometry, while the internal frame remained rational.

Modern bathroom with a sink, mirror, open shelving, and brown tile accents; a bathtub and window are visible in the adjacent room.

A narrow hallway with white walls and built-in cabinets leads to a sunlit alcove with large windows overlooking a cityscape with cranes.

Behind the transom gardens, windows aligned with this grid form what the architects call the “Luce Jardin,” or Light Transom Garden, where daylight filters softly through the planting and into the interior. Timber used on the underside of the transom garden eaves creates a second façade of sorts—one experienced from eye level when looking upward—lending warmth to a building otherwise defined by density, precision, and urban constraint.

View from a wooden loft area with a safety net, looking down at a modern staircase with beige walls and recessed lighting.

A narrow, modern apartment corridor with a wooden door, metal railing, exposed pipes, and concrete walls and floor under a wood-paneled ceiling.

Clerestory Garden ultimately proposes a more porous model for the mid-rise city building. It maximizes floor area ratio while carving out interstitial spaces for planting, light, and movement. In doing so, it harmonizes with the adjacent plaza and surrounding urban fabric while producing an architecture of density that feels unexpectedly expansive.

A person sits on a suspended white net platform in a bright room with artificial green grass flooring and large windows overlooking city buildings.

A modern multi-story building with angular balconies, large windows, and greenery on each level, set against a clear blue sky.

A modern balcony with a wooden ceiling overlooks a cityscape with tall buildings and illuminated signs at dusk.

To view this and other projects by the studio, visit keyoperation.com.

Photography by ToLoLo studio Mayu Nakamura.

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The ‘Lost’ Villages of Myanmar’s Rakhine

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A “river of blood” was how one survivor described the scene in western Myanmar. “I saw shooting. I saw mass killing.” Another told the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (UNHRC) how 20 relatives, including three children, had been killed in the 2024 attack on Htan Shauk Khan village.

Human Rights Watch (HRW) said earlier this month that the Arakan Army (AA) “may have killed at least 170 Rohingya men, women, and children” in Hoyyar Siri (known as Htan Shauk Khan in Burmese) in Buthidaung Township. It described the May 2, 2024, attack as a “massacre”.

Buthidaung is one of the two townships in Rakhine State that is home to the majority of the Rohingya, a mainly Muslim ethnic minority in the predominantly Buddhist Myanmar.

At least 40 villages in Buthindaung were burned down in April and May 2024 amid clashes between the AA, an ethnic armed group fighting Myanmar’s military junta for control of Rakhine, and junta forces battling to retain their hold of the township.

Both sides committed abuses against civilians during the clashes, according to HRW. The military junta’s forced conscription of Rohingya to fight on its behalf has also intensified violence against them. 

The military and Rohingya armed groups began arson attacks in Buthidaung township in April 2024. By mid-May the AA had captured all junta bases, according to the think tank, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. The destruction of Buthidaung has previously been documented by Bellingcat. 

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The AA has denied accusations that it massacred civilians in Buthidaung, claiming that those killed were junta soldiers and Rohingya militants.

Bellingcat emailed the United League of Arakan, AA’s political wing, about the alleged attack on civilians but did not receive a response at the time of publication. Myanmar’s Ministry of Defence also did not respond to our questions. 

Evidence of civilian harm in Myanmar is slow to emerge and difficult to obtain due to the military’s strict control of the region and the tight grip of armed groups such as the AA in areas they control. 

“The mass killing could only be confirmed more than a year later,” the recent HRW report said, “when survivors eventually crossed into Bangladesh and found their way to the Rohingya refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar.” 

Aerial imagery shows that Htan Shauk Khan was almost entirely destroyed in May 2024.

False-colour infrared map from Copernicus on Planet Insights Browser shows exposed ground in grey or tan, indicative of possible damage, in the village.

Erasing Homes

A new investigation by Bellingcat has identified 115 villages in Rakhine State, similar to Htan Shauk Khan, as partially or completely destroyed since the February 2021 military coup that overthrew Myanmar’s democratically elected government.

The data points to a pattern of violence that leaves civilian areas uninhabitable and in some cases, erases them completely.

MapLibre | Protomaps | Planet Labs © OpenStreetMap contributors

Several buildings were set on fire when the junta allegedly dropped a bomb on the Muslim village of Zu La on Nov. 3, 2024. The fire was captured nearby on NASA FIRMS.

Satellite imagery indicates that it was attacked again on Dec. 9, 2024. Visible smoke can be seen rising from the village.

Zu La is located in Maungdaw Township. Along with neighbouring Buthidaung, Maungdaw is home to the majority of Myanmar’s persecuted Rohingya.

Zu La, and the neighbouring village of Gone Nar, previously faced violence during the 2017 Rohingya genocide.

Satellite imagery from that year shows them completely burned to the ground.

They show signs of reconstruction after 2017.

But repeated attacks in 2024 destroyed the villages again.

Neither of the villages appears on the latest maps from 2024. These are produced by the United Nations mapping unit, based on Myanmar government maps.

Steve Ross, Senior Fellow at the US nonprofit Stimson Center who is leading the ‘Crisis in Myanmar’s Rakhine State’ project, told Bellingcat this is part of the military’s broader campaign to deny the existence of the Rohingya and erase identity in Rakhine.

Bellingcat contacted the Myanmar government but had received no response by the time of publication.

Villages in Mungdaw are inured to cycles of violence. Ywar Haung, a village south of Zu La, has stood barren since 2017.

So has Kan Kya, where the military built the Border Guard Police Battalion No. 5 (BGP5).

All four villages are among the growing number of Rakhine’s lost settlements.

Six of the 10 villages we found partially or totally destroyed in Maungdaw in 2024 aren’t marked on the UN’s township map.

Removing more villages from the map remains a possibility, Ross said. However, following this April’s elections, which critics dismissed as a sham, the military is eager to restore international credibility and avoid actions that might be seen as provocative, the expert told Bellingcat.

The AA announced the capture of Maungdaw when it seized BGP5 on Dec. 8, 2024.

And with that the armed group gained full control of Myanmar’s entire border with Bangladesh.

Shortly afterwards, the AA took control of the strategically important Ann Township in central Rakhine.

The armed group announced it had captured the headquarters of the Western Regional Military Command on Dec. 18, 2024.

It shared a video of the headquarters and nearby military installations burning.

Local residents in and around the township were trapped, displaced or forced to flee their homes due to the months-long fight for Ann.

According to reports, the military entered Pyaung Chaung village and burned it down on Oct. 31, 2024.

Satellite imagery from Nov. 1, 2024, shows large-scale damage in the village. There were reports that the military warned residents to evacuate the village a week before the attack.

Ross believes that the military’s intention has been to try to make Rakhine as ungovernable as possible if the AA gains full control of the state.

Nearby villages of Yat Thar Ywar Thit

and Pyaung Thay show similar evidence of destruction.

Sittwe city, the capital of Rakhine State, has become a focal area of fighting since late 2025. The city is in Sittwe township, one of the three townships still under junta control.

Su Mon Thant, Asia-Pacific analyst at Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), said capturing Sittwe would be highly symbolic for the AA as no non-state actor has yet taken control of a state capital in the country.

The AA already controls areas along an India-backed transport corridor in Myanmar that includes a port in Sittwe.

Sittwe is surrounded by water on three sides. Capturing it would be challenging, with the military maintaining naval superiority and building defences in and around the city to deter a potential AA offensive, Ross said.

On Dec. 27, 2024, the AA attacked the Kyauk Tan checkpoint near Sittwe on the highway linking the capital to Yangon, the largest city to the south of Rakhine.

There are many villages near the checkpoint.

Like Taw Kan

where, according to local reports, junta forces carried out an arson attack that destroyed 80 houses on Jan. 15, 2024.

Bellingcat found at least 13 villages near the checkpoint that had been destroyed, with only a few remaining structures. All but one of them were attacked in 2024-2025.

Less than 4km from the checkpoint is Yar Tan

which appears intact in a March 2024 Google Earth image

but several buildings look destroyed in high-resolution satellite image on Google Earth from March 2025.

Trenches and military outposts began appearing near the village around Nov-Dec 2024.

They grew as the months passed. However, due to a lack of updated high-resolution satellite images, we cannot tell whether these are currently in use or to what extent.

There are also villages that appear to have been replaced with defensive structures. For example, Kan Pyin Ywar Haung, for which the latest available high-resolution satellite image shows trenches on both sides.

Although such structures are clearly visible in high-resolution satellite imagery, lower-quality images can also help indicate whether a village was replaced with fortifications.

Kan Pyin Ywar Thit, located just south of Kan Pyin Ywar Haung, appears to have been completely destroyed; however, the same criss-crossing lines are not visible across the village.

Similar fortifications appear in other villages.

Defence infrastructure has replaced villages on the outskirts of Sittwe, making it more difficult for AA to advance towards the city, said Ross.

Bellingcat also found at least 10 villages partially or totally destroyed in Kyaukpyu Township since fighting intensified in February 2025.

Kyaukpyu, which has abundant oil, natural gas and marine resources, is also home to a junta naval base

As well as Chinese infrastructure projects that the AA fully or partially controls.

Nearly all the villages we found to be destroyed or damaged are within a 10km radius of the naval base.

In early March this year, clashes took place between the AA and the military near Say Maw village, located less than 5km from the base.

NASA FIRMS detected fire in the village and the surrounding areas on March 23, 2026.

The latest high resolution satellite image on Planet from April 2026 shows flattened buildings in the village.

A month earlier Saing Chon Dwein village, also less than 5km from the base, was reportedly burned down by the military.

The fire was caught on a Feb. 9, 2026 lower resolution satellite image

with burnt areas distinguishable the next day.

Like Sittwe, Kyaukpyu is surrounded by water, making it difficult for the Arakan Army, which lacks naval capabilities, to seize control. “AA has some advanced drones reportedly, but these areas also have jamming technology,” said Thant.

Methodology

The data was compiled using news reports, including social media channels, ACLED, satellite imagery and NASA FIRMS. The names of the villages were corroborated using the UN’s Myanmar Information Management Unit (MIMU), news reports and Planet Labs. 

We only included areas where the destruction was clearly visible in high-resolution satellite imagery or significant enough to be detected in mid-resolution images. Our data is not exhaustive and the true number of affected villages is likely to be higher.

While it is difficult to ascertain whether the villages we found damaged or destroyed showed signs of reconstruction, at least five of them appear to show some buildings rebuilt in latest available satellite imagery.

Military Control Is Slipping

Last month, in the first election since Myanmar’s 2021 coup, the pro-military parliament chose junta chief Min Aung Hlaing to be the next president.  

According to research group Data for Myanmar, at least 65 townships were excluded from voting, including the 14 in the AA’s control. In Rakhine’s 17 townships, voting was held in only three still under junta control – Kyaukpyu, Sittwe and Manaung.

The AA resumed attacks against the junta in Rakhine in November 2023, ending a year-long ceasefire.

Data published by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) and analysed by Bellingcat reveals a sharp increase in the military’s air and drone strikes in Rakhine. After the AA resumed its offensive, strikes rose from 30 in 2023 to 461 in 2024. By the end of 2024, the AA had captured all but three townships in the state.

Bellingcat found that strikes were then concentrated in the townships where the junta is fighting to maintain control. They decreased in 13 townships captured by the AA and remained unchanged in one during 2025. By contrast, attacks increased in Kyaukpyu and Sittwe, yet to be captured by the AA. Data for Manaung is unavailable.

ACLED’s data comes from multiple sources, including news reports and social media. While the data is not exhaustive, a broad trend can be identified. You can read further details and caveats about the data here.

Su Mon Thant, Asia-Pacific analyst at ACLED,explained that the military conducts clearance operations to prevent the AA from using villages as buffers or shelters – a tactic employed across the country. “At the same time, it’s a warning sign for other villages,” she said, adding that when one village is set ablaze, it sends a signal to other villages not to “accept, shelter or harbor” armed groups. Thant also noted that people are displaced when their village is destroyed, eroding support for armed groups as locals suffer the consequences of the fighting. 

The AA has vowed to take control of all of Rakhine by 2027 and success may bring a geopolitical shift in the region. The armed group’s control over Kyaukpyu and Sittwe will give it significant leverage, with both India and China having infrastructure projects in the townships, Steve Ross of the Stimson Center told Bellingcat.

But neither side can control the state without further alleviation of civilian suffering, Ross said. According to UNHRC data, there are almost half a million internally displaced people (IDPs) in Rakhine as of March 30, 2026.

Estimated total IDPs in March-April of each year. Data prior to 2022 is unavailable. Source: United Nations Human Rights Council. Chart: Created on Datawrapper, edited on Adobe Illustrator by Pooja Chaudhuri/Bellingcat

In Sittwe township alone, about 120,000 Rohingya have been displaced by communal conflict since 2012. 

“People displaced from other parts of Rakhine State during the war are in Sittwe, hundreds of thousands of civilians,” said Thant, adding that neither side can control the capital without significant loss of life.

There are also 1 million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh. The futures of both the refugees and IDPs remain uncertain. 

“Nobody can go home yet at this stage,” said Thant.


Bellingcat is a non-profit and the ability to carry out our work is dependent on the kind support of individual donors. If you would like to support our work, you can do so here. You can also subscribe to our Newsletter and follow us on Bluesky here, Instagram here, Reddit here and YouTube here.

The post The ‘Lost’ Villages of Myanmar’s Rakhine appeared first on bellingcat.

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Banned Russian Submunitions Found After Mali’s Military Announces Airstrikes

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This investigation is a collaboration between Bellingcat and Jeune Afrique. You can read Jeune Afrique’s article in French here.

Unexploded Russian-made cluster munition bomblets, as well as damage consistent with bomblet impacts, have been found in a village in northern Mali – despite the West African country being a state party to the Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM) which prohibits their use. 

The deployment of cluster munitions in northern Mali was first reported by Radio France International last week, citing local sources yet without showing images of the munitions or strikes in the reporting. However, social media footage posted on May 17, and since analysed by Bellingcat and our publishing partner, Jeune Afrique, shows unexploded Russian manufactured ShOAB-0.5 submunitions (bomblets).

Bellingcat geolocated a video showing the unexploded ShOAB-0.5 bomblets in the village of Tadjmart (18.977305, 0.86072), located approximately 55-kilometers (34-miles) south of the larger town of Aguelhok in northern Mali. This matches the location of airstrikes announced by the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) on May 17. FAMa claimed it had identified armed groups in the area.

A map detailing where the Tadjmart strike, signified by the red flame, was recorded. Courtesy MapCreator.

Russia’s paramilitary Africa Corps group, which is controlled by the Russian government and which replaced the Wagner mercenary group in the country, has been supporting Malian military operations.

Mali’s civil war has been ongoing since 2012. But the conflict has spiked in recent weeks as Tuareg separatists from the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and militants from the al-Qaeda affiliated Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) seized control of parts of the country in coordinated attacks against Malian and Africa Corps forces.

The footage geolocated by Bellingcat shows the unexploded submunitions near buildings, alongside multiple small craters, consistent with submunition explosions.

Left: Unexploded ShOAB-0.5 submunition found approximately 55 km south of Aguelhok. Right: ShOAB-0.5 Submunition. Sources: X and Armament Research Services.

The buildings and landmarks visible in the footage allowed us to geolocate where it was taken.

Geolocation of the video showing unexploded ShOAB-0.5 submunitions and the craters to the village of Tadjmart (18.977305, 0.86072). Sources: Airbus Imagery via Google Earth and X.

Additional footage geolocated by Bellingcat to nearby coordinates 18.97954, 0.85989 shows destroyed and burning buildings several hundred meters away, although this damage is not consistent with cluster munition use. The damage appears more significant than that which would be caused by submunition impacts.

Geolocation of the additional footage showing destruction several hundred meters away from where the submunitions were geolocated. Sources: Airbus Imagery via Google Earth and X.

Cluster munitions are explosive weapons which open mid-air to release large numbers of submunitions. They are prohibited from being used by signatories of the Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM) because they are indiscriminate, saturate a wide area and can leave behind highly volatile unexploded bomblets which can kill civilians long after deployment. 

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While Mali is a signatory to the CCM, Russia is not a state party to the agreement. 

Brian Finucane, a senior adviser with the US Program at the International Crisis Group, told Bellingcat that as a party to the CCM, Mali is “subject to its prohibitions and requirements. These include not only prohibitions on the use of cluster munitions, but also obligations to clear and destroy such munitions on its territory.”

ShOAB-0.5 submunitions are carried by the Russian RBK-500 cluster munition dispenser. A single RBK-500 dispenser can deploy about 565 ShOAB-0.5 submunitions. There is as yet no footage posted online showing a spent dispenser linked to this incident.Footage did circulate online on May 16 showing the remnants of an RBK-500. It was claimed to have been used in a separate cluster munition strike in the Timbuktu region of Mali. However, this footage was not geolocatable, given it only shows a close up of the dispenser at night, nor was it possible to tell when the footage was taken.

A second video appears to show the same dispenser, but shows the side with visible Russian markings denoting the model: “РБК-500; ШОАБ-0.5; ТГ-30”. This identifies the dispenser, RBK-500, the submunition inside, ShOAB-0.5, and the explosive filler, TG-30.

Left: Markings visible on RBK-500 ShOAB-0.5 dispenser reportedly found in Mali. Right: Reference image of RBK-500 ShOAB-0.5 cluster munitions loaded onto an aircraft. Sources: محمدن أيب أيب and Telegram.

RBK-500 dispensers are deployed by Russian-made aircraft including several MiG and Su models. According to the 2024 IISS Military Balance report, Mali does not have any known operational Russian fixed-wing attack aircraft. Two Russian Su-25 aircraft delivered to Mali – one in 2022 and another in 2023 – are reported to have crashed and been out of service since late 2023.

An Su-24M model has since appeared in satellite imagery captured at Modibo Keita International Airport in Bamako. The imagery was first published by France 24 in April 2025, although it was unclear if this aircraft was, or has been, operated by Africa Corps or Malian forces.

Bellingcat contacted the Malian military and Russian Ministry of Defence requesting comment, and asking which force was responsible for deploying cluster munitions. We did not receive a substantive response by publication time beyond the initial statement made by the MAFa which detailed it was responsible for the May 17 strike.

A video posted on May 17, by an account linked to Azawad rebels in Northern Mali, shows a person handling components of a ShOAB-0.5 submunition, seemingly unaware of the danger. However, as the video shows only a close up of the submunition, it has not been possible to geolocate the video or confirm when it was taken.

The FLA condemned the use of cluster munitions in a statement published on May 18. 

Bellingcat has previously reported on the use of cluster munitions in Syria and Ukraine and the danger they pose to civilians.


Youri van der Weide contributed to this report.

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The post Banned Russian Submunitions Found After Mali’s Military Announces Airstrikes appeared first on bellingcat.

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The Sun Is Undergoing a Mysterious Change and Nobody Knows Why

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The Sun Is Undergoing a Mysterious Change and Nobody Knows Why

The Sun is experiencing “striking” long-term shifts in its behavior that have gone undiscovered for more than a decade, according to a study published in the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society on Wednesday. 

The Sun passes through a cycle of high and low activity that lasts roughly 11 years and is caused by variations in the star’s magnetic activity. This activity peaks at a solar maximum, producing more frequent sunspots and higher radio flux, which are known as surface “proxies” of intense magnetism, as well as dramatic eruptions like solar flares and coronal mass ejections. At solar minimum, when magnetic activity winds down, the Sun enters a quieter phase. Throughout the cycle, sound waves known as p-modes oscillate near the surface of the Sun, providing clues about its internal structure. 

All of the above is well known, but using new tools, astronomers have just discovered a weird mismatch in surface and p-mode signals that emerged more than a decade ago and has become especially pronounced in the current epoch, Cycle 25, which began in 2019.

“Essentially, we can use the p-modes as a proxy and a probe of activity underneath the surface of the Sun, because the frequencies change in response to the changing magnetic field,” said Bill Chaplin, a professor of astrophysics at the University of Birmingham who led the study, in a call with 404 Media. 

“The sunspot number and the radio flux are basically proxies of the total amount of magnetic flux,” he continued. “What we're doing with the p-modes is saying: What is actually happening beneath the visible surface?”  

The Sun Is Undergoing a Mysterious Change and Nobody Knows Why
Graphic illustrating the p-mode oscillations in recent solar cycles. Image: W.J. Chaplin

To answer that question, Chaplin and his colleagues examined four decades of observations from the Birmingham Solar Oscillations Network (BiSON), a collection of six remote solar observatories located around the world that have tracked the Sun’s oscillations since 1976. 

While astronomers have monitored sunspots for centuries, BiSON has enabled researchers to monitor long-term shifts in “helioseismology,” which measures the seismic activity inside the Sun, a dataset that has led to the recent discovery of so-called "glitches" and other previously undetectable solar phenomena. 

“There's a tendency to think that because we've only had data on a few cycles, that all cycles look like that, and that they copy and repeat,” Chaplin said. “I think what's becoming clear is that that isn't the case. No cycle is the same as another.”

The new study revealed that Cycle 25 shows stronger high-frequency p-mode activity just below the surface compared to recent cycles, but that it also appears weaker in terms of surface proxies, meaning it is showing comparatively fewer sunspots and reduced radio flux. This discrepancy hints that magnetic activity has become increasingly confined to a region of several hundred miles under the surface with each successive cycle, though the underlying reason for this change is unclear.

“We saw this really clear signal in the high frequency modes,” said Chaplin. “You can see in the high frequency modes that the current cycle is as strong as Cycles 22 and 23 and that the picture looks very different in the proxies.”

The results suggest that surface proxies, while valuable as rough estimates of magnetic activity, don’t provide the full picture of the roiling dynamics playing out under the solar surface. Chaplin and his colleagues note that several other studies have presented evidence for long-term changes in near-surface solar phenomena, though it will take more research to understand what is driving these trends.

To that end, the team plans to continue observing Cycle 25, which just passed its maximum and is expected to close out with a minimum toward the end of the 2020s. The researchers speculated that the structural changes may be linked either to the longer Hale cycle, which is a period covering two solar cycles—roughly 22 years. Since the Sun’s magnetic poles flip after each solar cycle, the Hale cycle measures the time it takes for the Sun to return to its original magnetic state.

These long-term observations are slowly peeling back the enigmatic inner workings of the Sun, especially the solar dynamo—the process that generates its magnetic field—which remains poorly understood. These efforts could help refine forecasts of hazardous space weather near Earth, while also shedding light on the behavior of other stars.

“Getting more robust space weather predictions is important, but also, from the science point of view, there is [a need] for a better understanding of the dynamo, and how the dynamo changes on long timescales,” Chaplin said.

“Helioseismology is important because it enables you to see inside the Sun, which is something that you can't do by any other means,” he concluded.

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‘Cracked Oura’ Is an App For Using the Oura Ring Without the Monthly Subscription

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‘Cracked Oura’ Is an App For Using the Oura Ring Without the Monthly Subscription

Rather than pay a monthly subscription for an app that plenty of people think kinda sucks, a developer has created Cracked Oura, an open source app that lets Oura ring wearers query and analyze their health data without the monthly fee. 

On Thursday, Oura announced the new Ring 5, a lighter and smaller wearable with an allegedly better battery life. That ring will cost at least $399, and some models cost as much as $499. An Oura subscription, which is required to actually get usable insights on your sleep, stress, and exercise, costs nearly $70 a year or $6 a month.

Or, users could try Cracked Oura, which developer Elmo Ahorinta published on GitHub earlier this year. “Pay for the ring, not for the app that is not even that good,” its GitHub page reads.

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Do you know anything else about Oura? I would love to hear from you. Using a non-work device, you can message me securely on Signal at joseph.404 or send me an email at joseph@404media.co.

The page says Cracked Oura keeps the health data local to a user’s device, provides some deeper insights than the official app, and, most importantly, doesn’t require a subscription. The app works by using Oura’s data export function on its website. “​​Anyone can request the data from their website and it comes with a bunch of CSVs that contain the data. My application just takes the CSVs and populates a database,” Ahorinta told me in an email. Rather than having to log in to Oura’s website and manually download their data each time, Cracked Oura does it automatically, Ahorinta said.

It’s not complete, though. “At the moment, my application misses some features that Oura has. For example, women's health, symptom radar, and the front page's short texts about sleep and readiness are features that would need reverse engineering,” Ahorinta said. “Also, features like recording your workout heart rate and adding tags requires the subscription. But other than that, my application can be used to visualize the same data points that Oura does.”

The GitHub page lists Claude as a contributor, indicating Ahorinta used AI to make the app.

Even if not that many people end up using Cracked Oura, its existence highlights that people don’t necessarily want to be locked into a single platform, or a monthly subscription fee, when they’ve already spent a bunch of money to generate data about their own health. “I hope that other people would also contribute to this project and fix my bugs and bad design choices that I have made. I believe that this type of workaround applications could be made for any other wearable devices that have a subscription that gatekeep some parts of the data,” Ahorinta said.

Oura did not respond to a request for comment.

The company recently told cybersecurity journalist Zack Whittaker that it does “receive infrequent requests from the government” for user data. Oura wouldn’t say how many requests it receives, how often it turns over that requested data, or what kinds of data is requested, Whittaker wrote.

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